If we add these two outcomes, we get 104%.Īgain, if we bet both teams, we automatically lose, this time $4 for every $100 wagered in the long run.

If we bet $100 on Oakland, we have a possible payout of $0 for a loss or $260 for a win.Īgain we take the amount we risk and divide it by the total payout to get the implied probability for each outcome:.

If we bet $190 on Denver, we have a possible payout of $0 for a loss or $290 for a win.

If we ignore pushes, we only have these two possible outcomes. What Is the Implied Probability of Each Outcome, Ignoring Pushes? How Do the Odds and Implied Probabilities Change for Odds Other Than -110? The bookies clearly have the edge here, in this case a 4.8% house edge for each dollar wagered. This means that if we bet both teams, we would need to risk $104.8 to get back $100. If we add these two outcomes, we get 104.8%.

We take the amount we risk and divide it by the total payout to get the implied probability for each outcome: If we bet $110 on Oakland +3.5, we have a possible payout of $0 for a loss or $210 for a win.If we bet $110 on Denver -3.5, we have a possible payout of $0 for a loss or $210 for a win.What Is the Implied Probability of Each Outcome? On an NFL game, a sportsbook lists a game as: The amount over 100% is the bookie’s over round. In sports betting, the house edge, or vigorish, means that the implied probability of a set of events will always add up to over 100%. Adding the two probabilities, we get 83.33%.Ĭlearly there is a 100% probability that either heads or tails will come up, and if we assume a fair coin, your friend has a 16.66% edge over you in this bet (100% minus the 83.33% implied probability). However, now the implied probability of tails coming up is only $100/$300, or 33.33%. Your implied probability remains the same, 50%. Now let’s assume your friend gets paid +200, or $200, for every tails, while you still only get paid $100 for heads.

How sports betting odds are calculated